[摘 要] 随着化学工业和石油化学工业的发展，生产装置变的越来越自动化、连续化、大型化、复杂化，石化企业生产过程处理和储存的易燃、易爆的危险物种类和数量也越来越多，一旦这些物质的正常运行状态遭到破坏，就有可能导致重大爆炸事故，将会导致巨大的人员伤亡、财产损失和环境破坏。爆炸灾害影响范围大，事故的发生具有突发性、灾难性、复杂性和社会性。进行典型化工过程爆炸灾害的发生、发展与防治机理研究，建立爆炸灾害模拟评价理论模型与开发防灾决策支持系统，是建立和完善社会防灾体系及提高社会应急救援能力的重要内容之一，具有重要研究价值和社会现实意义。 本文重点研究了典型化工过程中发生的重大爆炸灾害事故模式：蒸气云爆炸和沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸。通过对化工和石油化工行业中发生的化工典型爆炸灾害事故案例的剖析、归纳总结、提炼，提取了这两种爆炸事故的发生、发展机理、相关条件、影响因素、事故特性、伤害机理和各种事故模式。并建立了危险品物性数据库、典型事故案例数据库和典型化工过程爆炸灾害事故模式知识库。 对现有的爆炸灾害模拟评价方法和模型进行了归纳和对比计算，分析了各个模型的优缺点及适用范围，继而给出了两种灾害性爆炸事故的事故后果及严重度模拟与评价理论模型，包括爆炸火球模型、爆炸冲击波空间分布及伤害模型，热辐射剂量空间分布及伤害模型，人员伤亡模型及财产损失评价模型。研究分析了爆炸灾害破坏和伤害形式，总结了适用气云爆炸灾害后果的评价准则，提出了基于灾害模型的事故模拟相应的评价方法，建立了uvce和bleve灾害后果及严重度评价指标体系，开发了相应的灾害后果模拟与评价软件系统。 对已有的系统安全评价技术方法的优缺点进行了分析和对比，继而将神经网络技术、人工智能技术、专家系统应用于开发新的系统安全评价方法，提出了基于人工神经网络的系统安全评价方法和基于神经网络的智能故障诊断专家系统模型，开发了可视化的神经网络系统，为系统安全评价与事故模式诊断提供了新思路。 给出了建立灾害应急预案的思想和步骤，总结出了应急预案的主要内容，并针对lpg泄漏事故给出了具体的救灾原则与程序，建立了爆炸灾害应急救援预案知识库。提出了基于面向对象思想的决策支持系统设计与开发思路与策略，给出了防灾决策支持系统的结构设计以及数据库及管理系统、模型库及管理系统、知识库及推理机等主要功能模块的设计方法，并对事故模式诊断模块、神经网络模型、灾害模拟与评价模块、灾害救援预案模块、决策支持四库系统，以及软件系统支撑环境、通讯网络与硬件等进行了系统集成，实现了两层结构的分布式化工过程爆炸灾害模拟与评价及防灾决策支持系统软件系统。 将灾害模拟评价理论模型及开发的软件系统与工程实践相结合，用典型事故案例来检验、修正理论模型，再应用于工程实践的灾害定量模拟评价、预防控制及救灾决策支持，使整篇论文建立在确定的事实和正确的理论相结合的基础之上。
[关键词] 蒸气云爆炸 沸腾液体扩展蒸气爆炸 事故机理 模型 模拟评价 人工神经网络 人工智能 决策支持系统

abstract with development of chemical and petroleum-chemical industry, main equipments and installations become more and more automatic, continuous, large and complex. and more and more kinds of flammable and explosive materials are processed and stored in the process of chemical industry. once normal running state of dangerous substance is disturbed，major explosion accident which leads to huge person casualty, loss of property and damage of environment will be induced. so study on occurrence, development and prevention and cure mechanism, building of simulation and evaluation theoretical model for explosion disasters in typical chemical process and decision support system(dss) for disaster prevention is important content for establishment and perfection of society disaster prevention system and improvement of society succour abilities under emergency. this paper focuses on two kinds of major explosion disaster accident, they are vapour cloud explosion (vce) and

boiling liquid expanding vapour explosion (bleve) in typical chemical process. mechanism, conditions and influent factors of occurrence and development, accident characteristic, damage mechanism and accident modes of uvce and bleve have been put forward by analysis, sum-up and abstract of substantive typical explosion disaster accident cases in chemical and petroleum-chemical process. data s for dangerous materials, typical accident cases and typical explosion disaster accident modes have been built. existing ways and models for simulation and evaluation of explosion disaster have been summarised and compared by calculation, and their virtues and defects have been analyzed. then models for simulation and evaluation of accident consequence of uvce and bleve have been given, including models for explosion fireball, distributing and damage of shock wave in space, distributing and damage of heat radiation in space, human casualty and property loss. damage modes of explosion disaster have been studied and analyzed. evaluation rules applying for gas cloud explosion have been summarized. accident simulation and evaluation way d on disaster models have been given. evaluation parameters system for disaster consequence of uvce and bleve has been established. simulation and evaluation software for disaster consequence of uvce and bleve has been developed . after analysis and comparison of virtues and hortcomings of existing system

safety evaluation ways, artificial neural network (ann), artificial intelligence (ai) and expert system (es) are used to build new system safety evaluation means. system safety evaluation model and intelligent expert system for fault diagnosis d on ann have been put forth. development and realization of visual neural network for system safety valuation and fault diagnosis provides new idea for system safety evaluation and accident mode diagnosis. ideas and steps for building of succour measures under emergent disaster have been suggested. contents of succour measures under emergent disaster have been summarized. detailed rescue principle and procedure under leak accident of lpg are also given as an example. knowledge , model , arithmetic and inference engine for explosion disaster prevention and emergency succour are built. design and development idea for decision support system d on -oriented idea are offered. design of structure and main function modules of dss for d